Riding profile

Guildford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Guildford: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Guildford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Zöe Franklin

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 40.5%
  • Conservative 23.2%
  • Reform UK 20.1%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Labour 6.6%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereGuildford 40.5%23.2%20.1%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +28.8 18.9% +4.3 25.3% −5.3 11.8% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
17.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Zöe Franklin Elected Lib Dems 22,937 47.5
Angela Richardson Conservative 14,508 30.0
Dennis Saunders Reform UK 4,395 9.1
Sarah Gillinson Labour 3,931 8.1
Sam Peters Green 2,268 4.7
John Morris Other 255 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,176
Median age
38
Employment rate
84.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029