Riding profile
Guildford
The question
Guildford: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Guildford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Zöe Franklin
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGuildford | 40.5% | 23.2% | 20.1% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +28.8 | 18.9% +4.3 | 25.3% −5.3 | 11.8% −4.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zöe Franklin Elected | Lib Dems | 22,937 | 47.5 | — |
| Angela Richardson | Conservative | 14,508 | 30.0 | — |
| Dennis Saunders | Reform UK | 4,395 | 9.1 | — |
| Sarah Gillinson | Labour | 3,931 | 8.1 | — |
| Sam Peters | Green | 2,268 | 4.7 | — |
| John Morris | Other | 255 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029