Riding profile

Woking

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Woking: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 45.4%
  • Conservative 21.4%
  • Reform UK 18.1%
  • Labour 6.6%
  • Green 6.5%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereWoking 45.4%21.4%18.1%6.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +34.0 19.3% +2.1 25.4% −7.3 21.8% −15.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Woking, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 45% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Will Forster

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
23.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Will Forster Elected Lib Dems 24,019 49.9 —
Jonathan Lord Conservative 12,773 26.5 —
Richard Barker Reform UK 4,888 10.2 —
Ese Erheriene Labour 4,444 9.2 —
Nataly Anderson Green 1,853 3.9 —
Tim Read Other 168 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,179
Median age
40
Employment rate
82.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029