Riding profile

Woking

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Woking: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Woking, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Will Forster

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 40.3%
  • Conservative 21.6%
  • Reform UK 19.0%
  • Labour 9.0%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereWoking 40.3%21.6%19.0%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +28.7 18.9% +2.7 25.3% −6.4 21.7% −12.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
23.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Will Forster Elected Lib Dems 24,019 49.9
Jonathan Lord Conservative 12,773 26.5
Richard Barker Reform UK 4,888 10.2
Ese Erheriene Labour 4,444 9.2
Nataly Anderson Green 1,853 3.9
Tim Read Other 168 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,179
Median age
40
Employment rate
82.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029