Riding profile

Wycombe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Wycombe: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Wycombe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 24% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emma Reynolds

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 24.1%
  • Labour 22.7%
  • Conservative 20.0%
  • Lib Dems 12.1%
  • Other 10.8%
  • Green 10.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereWycombe 24.1%22.7%20.0%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% −1.3 21.7% +1.1 18.9% +1.1 11.6% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Reynolds Elected Labour 16,035 35.9
Steve Baker Conservative 11,444 25.6
Richard Phoenix Reform UK 4,769 10.7
Toni Brodelle Lib Dems 4,236 9.5
Khalil Ahmed Other 3,344 7.5
Catherine Bunting Green 2,193 4.9
Ajaz Rehman Other 1,913 4.3
Ed Gemmell Other 489 1.1
Mark Smallwood Other 214 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,635
Median age
37
Employment rate
85.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029