Riding profile
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
The question
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?
Editorial read
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Danny Beales
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereUxbridge and South Ruislip | 29.5% | 23.9% | 23.3% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.6 | 21.7% +2.2 | 25.3% −2.0 | 11.8% +2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Beales Elected | Labour | 16,599 | 36.1 | — |
| Steve Tuckwell | Conservative | 16,012 | 34.9 | — |
| Tim Wheeler | Reform UK | 6,610 | 14.4 | — |
| Sarah Green | Green | 4,354 | 9.5 | — |
| Ian Rex-Hawkes | Lib Dems | 1,752 | 3.8 | — |
| Gary Harbord | Other | 223 | 0.5 | — |
| Steve Gardner | Other | 200 | 0.4 | — |
| Geoff Courtenay | Other | 164 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029