Riding profile
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
The question
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 3%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereUxbridge and South Ruislip | 30.2% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +10.9 | 21.8% +3.1 | 25.4% −0.5 | 10.8% +0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Danny Beales
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Beales Elected | Labour | 16,599 | 36.1 | — |
| Steve Tuckwell | Conservative | 16,012 | 34.9 | — |
| Tim Wheeler | Reform UK | 6,610 | 14.4 | — |
| Sarah Green | Green | 4,354 | 9.5 | — |
| Ian Rex-Hawkes | Lib Dems | 1,752 | 3.8 | — |
| Gary Harbord | Other | 223 | 0.5 | — |
| Steve Gardner | Other | 200 | 0.4 | — |
| Geoff Courtenay | Other | 164 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029