Riding profile
Hayes and Harlington
The question
Hayes and Harlington: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHayes and Harlington | 37.0% | 22.3% | 19.0% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +15.2 | 25.4% −3.0 | 19.3% −0.3 | 10.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Hayes and Harlington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John McDonnell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McDonnell Elected | Labour | 20,405 | 53.3 | — |
| Dylan Thomas | Conservative | 8,374 | 21.9 | — |
| Francoise Thompson | Reform UK | 4,114 | 10.7 | — |
| Christine West | Green | 2,131 | 5.6 | — |
| Rizwana Karim | Other | 1,975 | 5.2 | — |
| Alexander Cunliffe | Lib Dems | 1,316 | 3.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029