Riding profile

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 40.5%
  • Reform UK 20.3%
  • Labour 20.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.0%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereRuislip, Northwood and Pinner 40.5%20.3%20.0%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +21.2 25.4% −5.1 21.8% −1.8 11.4% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 40% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David Simmonds

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Simmonds Elected Conservative 21,366 45.4 —
Tony Gill Labour 13,785 29.3 —
Ian Price Reform UK 4,671 9.9 —
Jonathan Banks Lib Dems 4,343 9.2 —
Jess Lee Green 2,926 6.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,995
Median age
42
Employment rate
87.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029