Riding profile
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
The question
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 39% vote share, against 20% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Simmonds
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRuislip, Northwood and Pinner | 39.3% | 19.7% | 19.2% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +20.4 | 21.7% −2.0 | 25.3% −6.1 | 11.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Simmonds Elected | Conservative | 21,366 | 45.4 | — |
| Tony Gill | Labour | 13,785 | 29.3 | — |
| Ian Price | Reform UK | 4,671 | 9.9 | — |
| Jonathan Banks | Lib Dems | 4,343 | 9.2 | — |
| Jess Lee | Green | 2,926 | 6.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029