Riding profile
Watford
The question
Watford: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Watford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 25% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Matt Turmaine
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWatford | 25.3% | 22.0% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +3.6 | 25.3% −3.3 | 18.9% +1.3 | 11.6% +4.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Turmaine Elected | Labour | 15,708 | 35.3 | — |
| Dean Russell | Conservative | 10,985 | 24.7 | — |
| Ian Stotesbury | Lib Dems | 7,577 | 17.0 | — |
| Gary Ling | Reform UK | 4,930 | 11.1 | — |
| Khalid Chohan | Other | 2,659 | 6.0 | — |
| Arran Bowen-la Grange | Green | 2,428 | 5.5 | — |
| Sarah Knott | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029