Riding profile
Watford
The question
Watford: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWatford | 25.1% | 20.3% | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +3.3 | 11.4% +9.0 | 19.3% +1.0 | 25.4% −6.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Watford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 25% vote share, against 20% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Matt Turmaine
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Turmaine Elected | Labour | 15,708 | 35.3 | — |
| Dean Russell | Conservative | 10,985 | 24.7 | — |
| Ian Stotesbury | Lib Dems | 7,577 | 17.0 | — |
| Gary Ling | Reform UK | 4,930 | 11.1 | — |
| Khalid Chohan | Other | 2,659 | 6.0 | — |
| Arran Bowen-la Grange | Green | 2,428 | 5.5 | — |
| Sarah Knott | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029