Riding profile

Harrow East

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Harrow East: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.1%
  • Labour 19.1%
  • Reform UK 17.4%
  • Other 7.0%
  • Green 6.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Other
HereHarrow East 45.1%19.1%17.4%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +25.8 21.8% −2.7 25.4% −7.9 5.0% +1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Harrow East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 45% vote share, against 19% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bob Blackman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
24.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bob Blackman Elected Conservative 25,466 53.3 —
Primesh Patel Labour 13,786 28.9 —
Roger Clark Reform UK 2,188 4.6 —
Sabira Lakha Other 2,097 4.4 —
Seb Newsam Green 2,006 4.2 —
Reetendra Nath Banjeri Lib Dems 1,511 3.2 —
Sarajulhaq Parwani Other 723 1.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,266
Median age
38
Employment rate
71.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029