Riding profile
Harrow East
The question
Harrow East: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Harrow East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 47% vote share, against 18% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bob Blackman
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarrow East | 46.9% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +28.0 | 21.7% −3.2 | 25.3% −10.1 | 11.8% −3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Blackman Elected | Conservative | 25,466 | 53.3 | — |
| Primesh Patel | Labour | 13,786 | 28.9 | — |
| Roger Clark | Reform UK | 2,188 | 4.6 | — |
| Sabira Lakha | Other | 2,097 | 4.4 | — |
| Seb Newsam | Green | 2,006 | 4.2 | — |
| Reetendra Nath Banjeri | Lib Dems | 1,511 | 3.2 | — |
| Sarajulhaq Parwani | Other | 723 | 1.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029