Riding profile

Hendon

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hendon: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Editorial read

Hendon, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David Pinto-Duschinsky

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.4%
  • Labour 26.7%
  • Reform UK 17.7%
  • Green 11.4%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 4.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereHendon 32.4%26.7%17.7%11.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +13.5 21.7% +5.1 25.3% −7.6 11.8% −0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Pinto-Duschinsky Elected Labour 15,855 38.4
Ameet Jogia Conservative 15,840 38.4
Joshua Pearl Reform UK 3,038 7.4
Gabrielle Bailey Green 2,667 6.5
Clareine Enderby Lib Dems 1,966 4.8
Imtiaz Palekar Other 1,518 3.7
Ben Rend Other 233 0.6
Jane Gibson Other 139 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
131,691
Median age
35
Employment rate
68.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029