Riding profile

Hendon

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hendon: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Current forecast

Conservative

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.1%
  • Labour 28.0%
  • Reform UK 17.7%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 5.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereHendon 33.1%28.0%17.7%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +13.8 21.8% +6.1 25.4% −7.6 10.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hendon, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

David Pinto-Duschinsky

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Pinto-Duschinsky Elected Labour 15,855 38.4 —
Ameet Jogia Conservative 15,840 38.4 —
Joshua Pearl Reform UK 3,038 7.4 —
Gabrielle Bailey Green 2,667 6.5 —
Clareine Enderby Lib Dems 1,966 4.8 —
Imtiaz Palekar Other 1,518 3.7 —
Ben Rend Other 233 0.6 —
Jane Gibson Other 139 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
131,691
Median age
35
Employment rate
68.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029