Riding profile

Queen's Park and Maida Vale

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Queen's Park and Maida Vale: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Green 22.2%
  • Reform UK 13.0%
  • Conservative 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.6%
  • Other 6.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereQueen's Park and Maida Vale 38.4%22.2%13.0%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.6 10.8% +11.4 25.4% −12.4 19.3% −8.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Queen's Park and Maida Vale, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 22% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Georgia Gould

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
38.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Georgia Gould Elected Labour 20,126 52.5 —
Vivien Lichtenstein Green 5,213 13.6 —
Samia Hersi Conservative 5,088 13.3 —
Helen Baxter Lib Dems 3,417 8.9 —
Angela Carter-Begbie Reform UK 2,106 5.5 —
Irakli Menabde Other 1,792 4.7 —
Abdulla Dharamsi Other 601 1.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
123,834
Median age
35
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029