Riding profile

Hampstead and Highgate

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hampstead and Highgate: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.0%
  • Green 17.1%
  • Conservative 15.4%
  • Lib Dems 13.3%
  • Reform UK 12.7%
  • Other 3.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Conservative Lib Dems
HereHampstead and Highgate 38.0%17.1%15.4%13.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.2 10.8% +6.3 19.3% −3.9 11.4% +1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hampstead and Highgate, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 17% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tulip Siddiq

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
30.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tulip Siddiq Elected Labour 23,432 48.3 —
Don Williams Conservative 8,462 17.4 —
Lorna Russell Green 6,630 13.7 —
Scott Emery Lib Dems 6,181 12.7 —
Catherine Becker Reform UK 2,940 6.1 —
Christie Elan-Cane Other 532 1.1 —
Jonathan Livingstone Other 373 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,855
Median age
36
Employment rate
73.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029