Riding profile

Cities of London and Westminster

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Cities of London and Westminster: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 27.7%
  • Labour 27.4%
  • Reform UK 16.4%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 11.8%
  • Other 4.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereCities of London and Westminster 27.7%27.4%16.4%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +8.4 21.8% +5.6 25.4% −9.0 10.8% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cities of London and Westminster, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rachel Blake

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
6.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Blake Elected Labour 15,302 39.0
Tim Barnes Conservative 12,594 32.1
Edward Lucas Lib Dems 4,335 11.1
Rajiv Sinha Green 2,844 7.3
Tarun Ghulati Reform UK 2,752 7.0
Hoz Shafiei Other 727 1.9
Liz Burford Other 352 0.9
Huge De Burgh Other 110 0.3
John Generic Other 110 0.3
Tim Hallett Other 55 0.1
Matthew Carr Other 34 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
128,061
Median age
35
Employment rate
79.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029