Riding profile

Hornsey and Friern Barnet

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hornsey and Friern Barnet: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Hornsey and Friern Barnet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine West

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 42.6%
  • Green 25.1%
  • Lib Dems 12.9%
  • Reform UK 10.7%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Other 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Lib Dems Reform UK
HereHornsey and Friern Barnet 42.6%25.1%12.9%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +20.9 11.8% +13.3 11.6% +1.3 25.3% −14.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
44.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine West Elected Labour 28,535 58.7
Fabio Vollono Green 7,060 14.5
Dawn Barnes Lib Dems 6,099 12.5
Naz Panju Conservative 4,011 8.3
Navdeep Singh Reform UK 1,989 4.1
Dino Philippos Other 766 1.6
Helen Spiby-Vann Other 182 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,045
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029