Riding profile

Hornsey and Friern Barnet

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hornsey and Friern Barnet: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 45.7%
  • Green 21.9%
  • Lib Dems 12.7%
  • Reform UK 10.1%
  • Conservative 6.3%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Lib Dems Reform UK
HereHornsey and Friern Barnet 45.7%21.9%12.7%10.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +23.9 10.8% +11.1 11.4% +1.3 25.4% −15.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hornsey and Friern Barnet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 46% vote share, against 22% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine West

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
44.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine West Elected Labour 28,535 58.7 —
Fabio Vollono Green 7,060 14.5 —
Dawn Barnes Lib Dems 6,099 12.5 —
Naz Panju Conservative 4,011 8.3 —
Navdeep Singh Reform UK 1,989 4.1 —
Dino Philippos Other 766 1.6 —
Helen Spiby-Vann Other 182 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,045
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029