Riding profile

Finchley and Golders Green

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Finchley and Golders Green: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.6%
  • Labour 28.5%
  • Reform UK 17.3%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereFinchley and Golders Green 30.6%28.5%17.3%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.2 21.8% +6.7 25.4% −8.1 10.8% −0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Finchley and Golders Green, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sarah Sackman

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Sackman Elected Labour 21,857 44.3
Alex Deane Conservative 17,276 35.0
Sarah Hoyle Lib Dems 3,375 6.8
Steve Parsons Green 3,107 6.3
Giuseppe Pezzulli Reform UK 2,598 5.3
Brendan Patrick Donnelly Other 486 1.0
Katharine Margaret Murphy Other 318 0.7
Michael Shad Other 272 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,951
Median age
38
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029