Riding profile

Ealing Central and Acton

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Ealing Central and Acton: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.6%
  • Conservative 16.2%
  • Green 14.5%
  • Reform UK 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 12.7%
  • Other 6.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Green Reform UK
HereEaling Central and Acton 36.6%16.2%14.5%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.8 19.3% −3.1 10.8% +3.7 25.4% −11.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ealing Central and Acton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 16% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Rupa Huq

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rupa Huq Elected Labour 22,340 46.8
James Windsor-Clive Conservative 8,345 17.5
Alastair Mitton Lib Dems 6,056 12.7
Kate Crossland Green 5,444 11.4
Felix Orrell Reform UK 3,105 6.5
Nada Jarche Other 1,766 3.7
Stephen Balogh Other 410 0.9
Julie Carter Other 303 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
134,291
Median age
35
Employment rate
71.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029