Riding profile

Kensington and Bayswater

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Kensington and Bayswater: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kensington and Bayswater, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Joe Powell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.9%
  • Conservative 27.9%
  • Reform UK 16.6%
  • Green 11.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.3%
  • Other 6.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereKensington and Bayswater 28.9%27.9%16.6%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +7.2 18.9% +9.0 25.3% −8.8 11.8% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
6.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joe Powell Elected Labour 17,025 40.6
Felicity Buchan Conservative 14,122 33.7
William Houngbo Lib Dems 2,910 6.9
Mona Adam Green 2,732 6.5
Marc Burca Reform UK 2,514 6.0
Emma Dent Coad Other 1,824 4.3
John Stevens Other 486 1.2
Una O'Mahony Other 116 0.3
Roger Phillips Other 114 0.3
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India Other 65 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
135,420
Median age
37
Employment rate
67.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029