Riding profile
Kensington and Bayswater
The question
Kensington and Bayswater: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKensington and Bayswater | 30.9% | 29.7% | 14.2% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.1 | 19.3% +10.3 | 25.4% −11.1 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Kensington and Bayswater, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Joe Powell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Powell Elected | Labour | 17,025 | 40.6 | — |
| Felicity Buchan | Conservative | 14,122 | 33.7 | — |
| William Houngbo | Lib Dems | 2,910 | 6.9 | — |
| Mona Adam | Green | 2,732 | 6.5 | — |
| Marc Burca | Reform UK | 2,514 | 6.0 | — |
| Emma Dent Coad | Other | 1,824 | 4.3 | — |
| John Stevens | Other | 486 | 1.2 | — |
| Una O'Mahony | Other | 116 | 0.3 | — |
| Roger Phillips | Other | 114 | 0.3 | — |
| Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India | Other | 65 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029