Riding profile
St Albans
The question
St Albans: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt Albans | 52.0% | 16.8% | 14.2% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +40.6 | 25.4% −8.6 | 19.3% −5.1 | 10.8% −2.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
St Albans, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 52% vote share, against 17% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Daisy Cooper
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Cooper Elected | Lib Dems | 29,222 | 56.6 | — |
| James Spencer | Conservative | 9,388 | 18.2 | — |
| Sophia Bhatti | Labour | 5,189 | 10.1 | — |
| John Dowdle | Reform UK | 4,336 | 8.4 | — |
| Simon Grover | Green | 3,272 | 6.3 | — |
| Dafydd Morriss | Other | 104 | 0.2 | — |
| Stewart Satterly | Other | 103 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029