Riding profile

St Albans

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

St Albans: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

St Albans, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 46% vote share, against 17% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daisy Cooper

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 45.7%
  • Reform UK 17.0%
  • Conservative 14.9%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSt Albans 45.7%17.0%14.9%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +34.1 25.3% −8.3 18.9% −4.0 11.8% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
38.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daisy Cooper Elected Lib Dems 29,222 56.6
James Spencer Conservative 9,388 18.2
Sophia Bhatti Labour 5,189 10.1
John Dowdle Reform UK 4,336 8.4
Simon Grover Green 3,272 6.3
Dafydd Morriss Other 104 0.2
Stewart Satterly Other 103 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,650
Median age
41
Employment rate
80.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029