Riding profile
Bexhill and Battle
The question
Bexhill and Battle: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBexhill and Battle | 29.4% | 26.3% | 16.9% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +10.1 | 25.4% +0.9 | 21.8% −4.9 | 10.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bexhill and Battle, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Kieran Mullan
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Mullan Elected | Conservative | 16,186 | 33.9 | — |
| Christine Bayliss | Labour | 13,529 | 28.3 | — |
| Ian Gribbin | Reform UK | 7,929 | 16.6 | — |
| Becky Jones | Lib Dems | 3,473 | 7.3 | — |
| Jonathan Kent | Green | 2,972 | 6.2 | — |
| Abul Azad | Other | 2,206 | 4.6 | — |
| Jeff Newnham | Other | 769 | 1.6 | — |
| Julia Long | Other | 332 | 0.7 | — |
| Nigel Jacklin | Other | 210 | 0.4 | — |
| Colin Sullivan | Other | 144 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029