Riding profile

Weald of Kent

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Weald of Kent: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Weald of Kent, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Katie Lam

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.4%
  • Reform UK 30.4%
  • Labour 13.4%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.6%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereWeald of Kent 33.4%30.4%13.4%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +14.5 25.3% +5.0 21.7% −8.2 11.8% +1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Katie Lam Elected Conservative 20,202 39.8
Lenny Rolles Labour 11,780 23.2
Daniel Kersten Reform UK 10,208 20.1
Kate Walder Green 4,547 9.0
John Howson Lib Dems 3,975 7.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,083
Median age
48
Employment rate
84.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029