Riding profile
Weald of Kent
The question
Weald of Kent: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 94%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWeald of Kent | 34.9% | 30.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +15.6 | 25.4% +4.9 | 21.8% −8.6 | 10.8% +1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Weald of Kent, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 35% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Katie Lam
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Lam Elected | Conservative | 20,202 | 39.8 | — |
| Lenny Rolles | Labour | 11,780 | 23.2 | — |
| Daniel Kersten | Reform UK | 10,208 | 20.1 | — |
| Kate Walder | Green | 4,547 | 9.0 | — |
| John Howson | Lib Dems | 3,975 | 7.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029