Riding profile

Faversham and Mid Kent

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Faversham and Mid Kent: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.7%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • Labour 17.2%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Lib Dems 9.9%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereFaversham and Mid Kent 30.7%27.8%17.2%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.3 19.3% +8.5 21.8% −4.6 10.8% +1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Faversham and Mid Kent, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Helen Whately

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helen Whately Elected Conservative 14,816 31.8 —
Mel Dawkins Labour 13,347 28.6 —
Maxwell Harrison Reform UK 9,884 21.2 —
Hannah Temple Green 4,218 9.1 —
Hannah Perkin Lib Dems 4,158 8.9 —
Lawrence Rustem Other 171 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,852
Median age
42
Employment rate
83.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029