Riding profile
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
The question
Sittingbourne and Sheppey: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSittingbourne and Sheppey | 34.2% | 26.0% | 15.7% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.8 | 19.3% +6.7 | 21.8% −6.1 | 5.0% +4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Sittingbourne and Sheppey, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kevin McKenna
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McKenna Elected | Labour | 11,919 | 29.1 | — |
| Aisha Cuthbert | Conservative | 11,564 | 28.2 | — |
| William Fotheringham-Bray | Reform UK | 10,512 | 25.6 | — |
| Mike Baldock | Other | 3,238 | 7.9 | — |
| Sam Banks | Green | 1,692 | 4.1 | — |
| Frances Kneller | Lib Dems | 1,321 | 3.2 | — |
| Matt Brown | Other | 529 | 1.3 | — |
| Mad Mike Young | Other | 223 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029