Riding profile

Herne Bay and Sandwich

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Herne Bay and Sandwich: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.7%
  • Conservative 30.6%
  • Labour 18.3%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereHerne Bay and Sandwich 32.7%30.6%18.3%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.3 19.3% +11.3 21.8% −3.5 10.8% −0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Herne Bay and Sandwich, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Roger Gale

Sits with Conservative

Since
1983-06-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roger Gale Elected Conservative 17,243 35.3 —
Helen Whitehead Labour 14,744 30.2 —
Amelia Randall Reform UK 10,602 21.7 —
Thea Barrett Green 3,529 7.2 —
Angie Curwen Lib Dems 2,709 5.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,257
Median age
49
Employment rate
77.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029