Riding profile
Herne Bay and Sandwich
The question
Herne Bay and Sandwich: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Herne Bay and Sandwich, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Roger Gale
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHerne Bay and Sandwich | 32.1% | 29.5% | 17.8% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.8 | 18.9% +10.6 | 21.7% −3.8 | 11.8% |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Gale Elected | Conservative | 17,243 | 35.3 | — |
| Helen Whitehead | Labour | 14,744 | 30.2 | — |
| Amelia Randall | Reform UK | 10,602 | 21.7 | — |
| Thea Barrett | Green | 3,529 | 7.2 | — |
| Angie Curwen | Lib Dems | 2,709 | 5.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029