Riding profile

East Thanet

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

East Thanet: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.2%
  • Labour 25.0%
  • Conservative 23.6%
  • Green 13.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 4.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereEast Thanet 28.2%25.0%23.6%13.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.9 21.8% +3.2 19.3% +4.3 10.8% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Thanet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ms Polly Billington

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Polly Billington Elected Labour 17,054 39.9 —
Helen Harrison Conservative 10,083 23.6 —
Paul Webb Reform UK 8,591 20.1 —
Steve Roberts Green 4,590 10.8 —
Jai Singh Lib Dems 1,365 3.2 —
Grahame Birchall Other 563 1.3 —
Paul Holton Other 369 0.9 —
Mo Shafaei Other 98 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,304
Median age
43
Employment rate
67.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029