Riding profile
East Thanet
The question
East Thanet: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
East Thanet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ms Polly Billington
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEast Thanet | 29.7% | 24.8% | 20.6% | 15.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.4 | 21.7% +3.1 | 18.9% +1.7 | 11.8% +4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polly Billington Elected | Labour | 17,054 | 39.9 | — |
| Helen Harrison | Conservative | 10,083 | 23.6 | — |
| Paul Webb | Reform UK | 8,591 | 20.1 | — |
| Steve Roberts | Green | 4,590 | 10.8 | — |
| Jai Singh | Lib Dems | 1,365 | 3.2 | — |
| Grahame Birchall | Other | 563 | 1.3 | — |
| Paul Holton | Other | 369 | 0.9 | — |
| Mo Shafaei | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029