Riding profile
Folkestone and Hythe
The question
Folkestone and Hythe: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFolkestone and Hythe | 32.7% | 25.7% | 20.2% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.3 | 19.3% +6.4 | 21.8% −1.6 | 10.8% +1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Folkestone and Hythe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tony Vaughan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Vaughan Elected | Labour | 15,020 | 34.7 | — |
| Damian Collins | Conservative | 11,291 | 26.1 | — |
| Bill Wright | Reform UK | 10,685 | 24.7 | — |
| Marianne Brett | Green | 3,954 | 9.1 | — |
| Larry Ngan | Lib Dems | 1,736 | 4.0 | — |
| Momtaz Khanom | Other | 249 | 0.6 | — |
| David Allen | Other | 240 | 0.6 | — |
| Andy Thomas | Other | 71 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029