Riding profile
Dover and Deal
The question
Dover and Deal: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Dover and Deal, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mike Tapp
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDover and Deal | 34.0% | 24.1% | 18.5% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.6 | 21.7% +2.4 | 18.9% −0.4 | 11.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tapp Elected | Labour | 18,940 | 39.6 | — |
| Howard Cox | Reform UK | 11,355 | 23.8 | — |
| Stephen James | Conservative | 10,370 | 21.7 | — |
| Christine Oliver | Green | 3,106 | 6.5 | — |
| Penelope James | Lib Dems | 2,595 | 5.4 | — |
| Geoffrey Lymer | Other | 485 | 1.0 | — |
| Ash Payne | Other | 369 | 0.8 | — |
| Steve Laws | Other | 185 | 0.4 | — |
| Sylvia Petersen | Other | 168 | 0.3 | — |
| Chris Tough | Other | 104 | 0.2 | — |
| Colin Tasker | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029