Riding profile
Canterbury
The question
Canterbury: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Canterbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Rosie Duffield
Sits with Independent
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCanterbury | 28.7% | 24.0% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +7.0 | 25.3% −1.3 | 18.9% −0.4 | 11.8% +4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Duffield Elected | Labour | 19,531 | 41.4 | — |
| Louise Harvey-Quirke | Conservative | 10,878 | 23.0 | — |
| Bridget Porter | Reform UK | 6,805 | 14.4 | — |
| Henry Stanton | Green | 5,920 | 12.5 | — |
| Russ Timpson | Lib Dems | 3,812 | 8.1 | — |
| Luke Buchanan-Hodgman | Other | 285 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029