Riding profile

Canterbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Canterbury: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.3%
  • Reform UK 23.8%
  • Conservative 18.3%
  • Green 17.9%
  • Lib Dems 9.3%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCanterbury 28.3%23.8%18.3%17.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +6.5 25.4% −1.5 19.3% −1.0 10.8% +7.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Canterbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rosie Duffield

Sits with Independent

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rosie Duffield Elected Labour 19,531 41.4 —
Louise Harvey-Quirke Conservative 10,878 23.0 —
Bridget Porter Reform UK 6,805 14.4 —
Henry Stanton Green 5,920 12.5 —
Russ Timpson Lib Dems 3,812 8.1 —
Luke Buchanan-Hodgman Other 285 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,264
Median age
38
Employment rate
63.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029