Riding profile

Ashford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Ashford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.4%
  • Conservative 26.3%
  • Labour 18.6%
  • Green 12.5%
  • Lib Dems 7.2%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereAshford 30.4%26.3%18.6%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.0 19.3% +7.0 21.8% −3.2 10.8% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ashford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sojan Joseph

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sojan Joseph Elected Labour 15,262 32.5 —
Damian Green Conservative 13,483 28.7 —
Tristram Kennedy Harper Reform UK 10,141 21.6 —
Mandy Rossi Green 4,355 9.3 —
Adam Rowledge Lib Dems 2,445 5.2 —
James Ransley Other 1,289 2.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,652
Median age
39
Employment rate
77.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029