Riding profile
Ashford
The question
Ashford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Ashford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sojan Joseph
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAshford | 30.6% | 24.1% | 19.5% | 14.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.2 | 18.9% +5.2 | 21.7% −2.2 | 11.8% +2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sojan Joseph Elected | Labour | 15,262 | 32.5 | — |
| Damian Green | Conservative | 13,483 | 28.7 | — |
| Tristram Kennedy Harper | Reform UK | 10,141 | 21.6 | — |
| Mandy Rossi | Green | 4,355 | 9.3 | — |
| Adam Rowledge | Lib Dems | 2,445 | 5.2 | — |
| James Ransley | Other | 1,289 | 2.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029