Southend East and Rochford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 76%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend East and Rochford | 30.0% | 26.7% | 24.1% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+3.5 | 22.3%+4.5 | 20.0%+4.1 | 9.7%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,864 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Mr Bayo Alaba · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayo Alaba Elected | Labour | 15,395 | 38.8 |
| Gavin Haran | Conservative | 11,368 | 28.7 |
| Leslie Lilley | Reform UK | 7,214 | 18.2 |
| Simon Cross | Green | 2,716 | 6.8 |
| James Allen | Lib Dems | 2,269 | 5.7 |
| Lee Clark | Other | 488 | 1.2 |
| Bianca Isherwood | Other | 206 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southend West and Leigh Labour, toss-up
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated