Riding profile
Southend East and Rochford
The question
Southend East and Rochford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Southend East and Rochford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Bayo Alaba
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthend East and Rochford | 30.9% | 23.6% | 23.2% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.5 | 18.9% +4.7 | 21.7% +1.5 | 11.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayo Alaba Elected | Labour | 15,395 | 38.8 | — |
| Gavin Haran | Conservative | 11,368 | 28.7 | — |
| Leslie Lilley | Reform UK | 7,214 | 18.2 | — |
| Simon Cross | Green | 2,716 | 6.8 | — |
| James Allen | Lib Dems | 2,269 | 5.7 | — |
| Lee Clark | Other | 488 | 1.2 | — |
| Bianca Isherwood | Other | 206 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029