Riding profile

Southend East and Rochford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Southend East and Rochford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.6%
  • Conservative 24.2%
  • Labour 22.1%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 7.4%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSouthend East and Rochford 31.6%24.2%22.1%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.3 19.3% +4.8 21.8% +0.3 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Southend East and Rochford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Bayo Alaba

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bayo Alaba Elected Labour 15,395 38.8 —
Gavin Haran Conservative 11,368 28.7 —
Leslie Lilley Reform UK 7,214 18.2 —
Simon Cross Green 2,716 6.8 —
James Allen Lib Dems 2,269 5.7 —
Lee Clark Other 488 1.2 —
Bianca Isherwood Other 206 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,864
Median age
40
Employment rate
82.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029