Riding profile
Hastings and Rye
The question
Hastings and Rye: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hastings and Rye, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Helena Dollimore
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 64%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHastings and Rye | 26.9% | 25.5% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +5.2 | 25.3% +0.2 | 18.9% +1.1 | 11.8% +6.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Dollimore Elected | Labour | 19,134 | 41.6 | — |
| Sally-Ann Hart | Conservative | 10,481 | 22.8 | — |
| Lucian Fernando | Reform UK | 7,401 | 16.1 | — |
| Becca Horn | Green | 5,761 | 12.5 | — |
| Guy Harris | Lib Dems | 2,586 | 5.6 | — |
| Phil Colley | Other | 362 | 0.8 | — |
| Nicolas Davies | Other | 136 | 0.3 | — |
| Paul Crosland | Other | 129 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029