Riding profile
Brentwood and Ongar
The question
Brentwood and Ongar: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Brentwood and Ongar, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Burghart
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrentwood and Ongar | 34.1% | 30.5% | 13.6% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.8 | 18.9% +11.6 | 21.7% −8.0 | 11.6% +0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Burghart Elected | Conservative | 17,731 | 36.7 | — |
| Paul Godfrey | Reform UK | 11,751 | 24.3 | — |
| Gareth Barrett | Labour | 11,082 | 22.9 | — |
| David Kendall | Lib Dems | 5,809 | 12.0 | — |
| RJ Learmouth | Green | 1,770 | 3.7 | — |
| Robin Tilbrook | Other | 189 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029