Riding profile

Harlow

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Harlow: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.1%
  • Conservative 26.3%
  • Labour 20.8%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereHarlow 35.1%26.3%20.8%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.7 19.3% +7.0 21.8% −1.1 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Harlow, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Vince

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Vince Elected Labour 16,313 37.6 —
Hannah Ellis Conservative 13,809 31.9 —
Malcolm Featherstone Reform UK 9,461 21.8 —
Yasmin Gregory Green 2,267 5.2 —
Riad Mannan Lib Dems 1,350 3.1 —
Lois Perry Other 157 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
112,137
Median age
38
Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029