Riding profile
Harlow
The question
Harlow: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Harlow, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Vince
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarlow | 33.5% | 26.7% | 22.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.2 | 18.9% +7.8 | 21.7% +0.5 | 11.8% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Vince Elected | Labour | 16,313 | 37.6 | — |
| Hannah Ellis | Conservative | 13,809 | 31.9 | — |
| Malcolm Featherstone | Reform UK | 9,461 | 21.8 | — |
| Yasmin Gregory | Green | 2,267 | 5.2 | — |
| Riad Mannan | Lib Dems | 1,350 | 3.1 | — |
| Lois Perry | Other | 157 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029