Riding profile

North West Essex

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North West Essex: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.4%
  • Reform UK 26.3%
  • Labour 18.0%
  • Lib Dems 12.5%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth West Essex 29.4%26.3%18.0%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.1 25.4% +0.9 21.8% −3.8 11.4% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North West Essex, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mrs Kemi Badenoch

Sits with Conservative

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kemi Badenoch Elected Conservative 19,360 35.6 —
Issy Waite Labour 16,750 30.8 —
Grant StClair-Armstrong Reform UK 7,668 14.1 —
Smita Rajesh Lib Dems 6,055 11.1 —
Edward Gildea Green 2,846 5.2 —
Andrew Green Other 852 1.6 —
Erik Bonino Other 699 1.3 —
Niko Omilana Other 156 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,580
Median age
43
Employment rate
76.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029