Riding profile
North West Essex
The question
North West Essex: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
North West Essex, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mrs Kemi Badenoch
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth West Essex | 28.9% | 27.6% | 17.7% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.0 | 25.3% +2.2 | 21.7% −3.9 | 11.6% +0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch Elected | Conservative | 19,360 | 35.6 | — |
| Issy Waite | Labour | 16,750 | 30.8 | — |
| Grant StClair-Armstrong | Reform UK | 7,668 | 14.1 | — |
| Smita Rajesh | Lib Dems | 6,055 | 11.1 | — |
| Edward Gildea | Green | 2,846 | 5.2 | — |
| Andrew Green | Other | 852 | 1.6 | — |
| Erik Bonino | Other | 699 | 1.3 | — |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029