Riding profile

Braintree

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Braintree: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.1%
  • Conservative 28.4%
  • Labour 15.8%
  • Green 9.1%
  • Lib Dems 7.4%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBraintree 36.1%28.4%15.8%9.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +10.8 19.3% +9.1 21.8% −6.0 10.8% −1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Braintree, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir James Cleverly

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Cleverly Elected Conservative 17,414 35.5 —
Matthew Wright Labour 13,744 28.0 —
Richard Thomson Reform UK 11,346 23.1 —
Kieron Franks Lib Dems 2,879 5.9 —
Paul Thorogood Green 2,878 5.9 —
David Heather Other 767 1.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,458
Median age
44
Employment rate
80.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029