Riding profile
Braintree
The question
Braintree: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Braintree, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir James Cleverly
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBraintree | 34.0% | 29.4% | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.7 | 18.9% +10.5 | 21.7% −6.1 | 11.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly Elected | Conservative | 17,414 | 35.5 | — |
| Matthew Wright | Labour | 13,744 | 28.0 | — |
| Richard Thomson | Reform UK | 11,346 | 23.1 | — |
| Kieron Franks | Lib Dems | 2,879 | 5.9 | — |
| Paul Thorogood | Green | 2,878 | 5.9 | — |
| David Heather | Other | 767 | 1.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029