Riding profile
West Suffolk
The question
West Suffolk: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWest Suffolk | 32.9% | 27.3% | 15.4% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.6 | 19.3% +8.0 | 21.8% −6.4 | 10.8% −0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
West Suffolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nick Timothy
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Timothy Elected | Conservative | 15,814 | 34.3 | — |
| Rebecca Denness | Labour | 12,567 | 27.2 | — |
| David Bull | Reform UK | 9,623 | 20.9 | — |
| Henry Batchelor | Lib Dems | 4,284 | 9.3 | — |
| Mark Ereira | Green | 2,910 | 6.3 | — |
| Katie Parker | Other | 485 | 1.1 | — |
| Luke O'Brien | Other | 345 | 0.8 | — |
| Ivan Kinsman | Other | 133 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029