Riding profile

Cambridge

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Cambridge: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.5%
  • Green 24.0%
  • Lib Dems 18.4%
  • Reform UK 10.9%
  • Conservative 7.7%
  • Other 5.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Lib Dems Reform UK
HereCambridge 33.5%24.0%18.4%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.6 10.8% +13.2 11.4% +7.0 25.4% −14.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cambridge, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 24% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daniel Zeichner

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daniel Zeichner Elected Labour 19,614 46.6 —
Cheney Payne Lib Dems 8,536 20.3 —
Sarah Nicmanis Green 6,842 16.3 —
Shane Manning Conservative 5,073 12.1 —
Khalid Abu-Tayyem Other 951 2.3 —
David Carmona Other 819 1.9 —
Keith Garrett Other 265 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,429
Median age
31
Employment rate
75.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029