North East Hertfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Hertfordshire | 27.9% | 27.7% | 23.4% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+1.4 | 20.0%+7.6 | 22.3%+1.1 | 9.7% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,451 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 83.8% |
Current member
Chris Hinchliff · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hinchliff Elected | Labour | 18,358 | 35.0 |
| Nikki Da Costa | Conservative | 16,435 | 31.3 |
| Steve Adelantado | Reform UK | 8,462 | 16.1 |
| Ruth Brown | Lib Dems | 5,463 | 10.4 |
| Vicky Burt | Green | 3,802 | 7.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stevenage Labour, toss-up
- Broxbourne Conservative, toss-up
- Hertford and Stortford Labour, toss-up
- Welwyn Hatfield Labour, toss-up
- Hitchin Labour, safe seat
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated