Riding profile
North East Hertfordshire
The question
North East Hertfordshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Hertfordshire | 28.4% | 26.5% | 19.3% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.0 | 19.3% +7.2 | 21.8% −2.5 | 11.4% +1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North East Hertfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Chris Hinchliff
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hinchliff Elected | Labour | 18,358 | 35.0 | — |
| Nikki Da Costa | Conservative | 16,435 | 31.3 | — |
| Steve Adelantado | Reform UK | 8,462 | 16.1 | — |
| Ruth Brown | Lib Dems | 5,463 | 10.4 | — |
| Vicky Burt | Green | 3,802 | 7.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029