Riding profile
North East Hertfordshire
The question
North East Hertfordshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
North East Hertfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Chris Hinchliff
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Hertfordshire | 28.0% | 25.8% | 22.1% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +2.6 | 18.9% +6.9 | 21.7% +0.4 | 11.8% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hinchliff Elected | Labour | 18,358 | 35.0 | — |
| Nikki Da Costa | Conservative | 16,435 | 31.3 | — |
| Steve Adelantado | Reform UK | 8,462 | 16.1 | — |
| Ruth Brown | Lib Dems | 5,463 | 10.4 | — |
| Vicky Burt | Green | 3,802 | 7.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029