Riding profile

Hitchin

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Hitchin: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 25.7%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Conservative 24.2%
  • Lib Dems 12.9%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereHitchin 25.7%24.4%24.2%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +0.3 21.8% +2.5 19.3% +4.9 11.4% +1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hitchin, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alistair Strathern

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-10-19
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alistair Strathern Elected Labour 23,067 43.9 —
Bim Afolami Conservative 14,958 28.5 —
Charles Bunker Reform UK 6,760 12.9 —
Chris Lucas Lib Dems 4,913 9.4 —
Will Lavin Green 2,631 5.0 —
Sid Cordle Other 181 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,547
Median age
41
Employment rate
84.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029