Riding profile

Hitchin

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Hitchin: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hitchin, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alistair Strathern

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-10-19
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.1%
  • Reform UK 25.0%
  • Conservative 23.8%
  • Lib Dems 10.9%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems
HereHitchin 28.1%25.0%23.8%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +6.5 25.3% −0.4 18.9% +4.9 11.6% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alistair Strathern Elected Labour 23,067 43.9
Bim Afolami Conservative 14,958 28.5
Charles Bunker Reform UK 6,760 12.9
Chris Lucas Lib Dems 4,913 9.4
Will Lavin Green 2,631 5.0
Sid Cordle Other 181 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,547
Median age
41
Employment rate
84.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029