Riding profile

Luton South and South Bedfordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Luton South and South Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 22.7%
  • Reform UK 21.7%
  • Other 19.1%
  • Conservative 15.2%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Other Conservative
HereLuton South and South Bedfordshire 22.7%21.7%19.1%15.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +0.9 25.4% −3.6 5.0% +14.0 19.3% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Luton South and South Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 23% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rachel Hopkins

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Hopkins Elected Labour 13,593 35.4
Mark Versallion Conservative 6,735 17.6
Attiq Malik Other 5,384 14.0
Norman Maclean Reform UK 4,759 12.4
Yasin Rehman Other 3,110 8.1
Edward Carpenter Green 2,401 6.3
Dominic Griffiths Lib Dems 2,400 6.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,695
Median age
34
Employment rate
69.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029