Riding profile
Luton South and South Bedfordshire
The question
Luton South and South Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Luton South and South Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Rachel Hopkins
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLuton South and South Bedfordshire | 26.0% | 22.7% | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +0.7 | 21.7% +1.0 | 4.8% +13.1 | 18.9% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Hopkins Elected | Labour | 13,593 | 35.4 | — |
| Mark Versallion | Conservative | 6,735 | 17.6 | — |
| Attiq Malik | Other | 5,384 | 14.0 | — |
| Norman Maclean | Reform UK | 4,759 | 12.4 | — |
| Yasin Rehman | Other | 3,110 | 8.1 | — |
| Edward Carpenter | Green | 2,401 | 6.3 | — |
| Dominic Griffiths | Lib Dems | 2,400 | 6.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029