Riding profile

Harpenden and Berkhamsted

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Harpenden and Berkhamsted: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 45.8%
  • Conservative 24.2%
  • Reform UK 18.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • Labour 3.6%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereHarpenden and Berkhamsted 45.8%24.2%18.0%6.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +34.5 19.3% +4.9 25.4% −7.4 10.8% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Harpenden and Berkhamsted, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 46% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Victoria Collins

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
19.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Victoria Collins Elected Lib Dems 27,282 50.2 —
Nigel Gardner Conservative 16,574 30.5 —
Saba Poursaeedi Reform UK 4,245 7.8 —
Zara Layne Labour 4,061 7.5 —
Paul De Hoest Green 1,951 3.6 —
Mark Patten Other 223 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,445
Median age
44
Employment rate
77.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029