Riding profile
Harpenden and Berkhamsted
The question
Harpenden and Berkhamsted: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Harpenden and Berkhamsted, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Victoria Collins
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarpenden and Berkhamsted | 39.4% | 25.0% | 18.9% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +27.7 | 18.9% +6.1 | 25.3% −6.4 | 11.8% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Collins Elected | Lib Dems | 27,282 | 50.2 | — |
| Nigel Gardner | Conservative | 16,574 | 30.5 | — |
| Saba Poursaeedi | Reform UK | 4,245 | 7.8 | — |
| Zara Layne | Labour | 4,061 | 7.5 | — |
| Paul De Hoest | Green | 1,951 | 3.6 | — |
| Mark Patten | Other | 223 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029