Riding profile

Hemel Hempstead

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Hemel Hempstead: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.2%
  • Labour 23.6%
  • Conservative 23.5%
  • Lib Dems 13.7%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereHemel Hempstead 29.2%23.6%23.5%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.8 21.8% +1.8 19.3% +4.2 11.4% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hemel Hempstead, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David Taylor

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Taylor Elected Labour 16,844 38.2 —
Andrew Williams Conservative 11,987 27.2 —
Noel Willcox Reform UK 7,689 17.4 —
Sammy Barry-Mears Lib Dems 5,096 11.6 —
Sherief Hassan Green 2,492 5.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,046
Median age
38
Employment rate
90.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029