Riding profile
Hemel Hempstead
The question
Hemel Hempstead: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hemel Hempstead, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Taylor
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHemel Hempstead | 28.3% | 25.5% | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +2.9 | 21.7% +3.8 | 18.9% +4.2 | 11.6% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Taylor Elected | Labour | 16,844 | 38.2 | — |
| Andrew Williams | Conservative | 11,987 | 27.2 | — |
| Noel Willcox | Reform UK | 7,689 | 17.4 | — |
| Sammy Barry-Mears | Lib Dems | 5,096 | 11.6 | — |
| Sherief Hassan | Green | 2,492 | 5.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Harpenden and BerkhamstedLib Dems Safe seatOpen →
- South West HertfordshireConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Chesham and AmershamLib Dems Safe seatOpen →
- WatfordLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Luton South and South BedfordshireReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029