Riding profile
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
The question
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDunstable and Leighton Buzzard | 28.4% | 25.3% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.0 | 19.3% +6.0 | 21.8% −2.9 | 11.4% +4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Mayer
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Mayer Elected | Labour | 14,976 | 32.5 | — |
| Andrew Selous | Conservative | 14,309 | 31.1 | — |
| Harry Palmer | Reform UK | 8,071 | 17.5 | — |
| Emma Holland-Lindsay | Lib Dems | 6,497 | 14.1 | — |
| Sukhinder Hundal | Green | 2,115 | 4.6 | — |
| Antonio Vitiello | Other | 77 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029