Riding profile

Mid Bedfordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Mid Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.4%
  • Conservative 27.7%
  • Labour 18.6%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 10.0%
  • Other 4.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMid Bedfordshire 28.4%27.7%18.6%10.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.0 19.3% +8.4 21.8% −3.2 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Blake Stephenson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Blake Stephenson Elected Conservative 16,912 34.1 —
Maahwish Mirza Labour 15,591 31.4 —
Dave Holland Reform UK 8,594 17.3 —
Stuart Roberts Lib Dems 4,068 8.2 —
Cade Sibley Green 2,584 5.2 —
Gareth Mackey Other 1,700 3.4 —
Richard Brunning Other 172 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,868
Median age
40
Employment rate
85.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029