Riding profile
Mid Bedfordshire
The question
Mid Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Mid Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Blake Stephenson
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid Bedfordshire | 30.2% | 27.3% | 17.6% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.9 | 18.9% +8.4 | 21.7% −4.0 | 11.6% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stephenson Elected | Conservative | 16,912 | 34.1 | — |
| Maahwish Mirza | Labour | 15,591 | 31.4 | — |
| Dave Holland | Reform UK | 8,594 | 17.3 | — |
| Stuart Roberts | Lib Dems | 4,068 | 8.2 | — |
| Cade Sibley | Green | 2,584 | 5.2 | — |
| Gareth Mackey | Other | 1,700 | 3.4 | — |
| Richard Brunning | Other | 172 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029