Riding profile

Bedford

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Bedford: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.6%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Conservative 18.8%
  • Lib Dems 11.7%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 6.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems
HereBedford 29.6%22.4%18.8%11.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +7.8 25.4% −3.0 19.3% −0.6 11.4% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bedford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mohammad Yasin

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mohammad Yasin Elected Labour 18,342 45.1
Pinder Chauhan Conservative 8,912 21.9
Matt Lansley Reform UK 4,548 11.2
Henry Vann Lib Dems 4,025 9.9
Ben Foley Green 2,394 5.9
Tarek Javed Other 1,442 3.5
Prince Chaudhury Other 996 2.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,633
Median age
38
Employment rate
83.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029