Riding profile

North Bedfordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.5%
  • Reform UK 28.3%
  • Labour 16.5%
  • Lib Dems 12.1%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth Bedfordshire 31.5%28.3%16.5%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.2 25.4% +3.0 21.8% −5.3 11.4% +0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Richard Fuller

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Fuller Elected Conservative 19,981 38.8 —
Uday Nagaraju Labour 14,567 28.3 —
Pippa Clayton Reform UK 8,433 16.4 —
Joanna Szaub-Newton Lib Dems 5,553 10.8 —
Philippa Fleming Green 3,027 5.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,917
Median age
42
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029