Riding profile

North Bedfordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North Bedfordshire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North Bedfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Richard Fuller

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Labour 16.5%
  • Lib Dems 11.9%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth Bedfordshire 31.3%29.6%16.5%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.4 25.3% +4.3 21.7% −5.2 11.6% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Fuller Elected Conservative 19,981 38.8
Uday Nagaraju Labour 14,567 28.3
Pippa Clayton Reform UK 8,433 16.4
Joanna Szaub-Newton Lib Dems 5,553 10.8
Philippa Fleming Green 3,027 5.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,917
Median age
42
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029