Riding profile

Huntingdon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Huntingdon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Reform UK 27.6%
  • Labour 19.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.8%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Other 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereHuntingdon 29.0%27.6%19.0%10.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.7 25.4% +2.3 21.8% −2.8 11.4% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Huntingdon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ben Obese-Jecty

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Obese-Jecty Elected Conservative 18,257 35.1 —
Alex Bulat Labour 16,758 32.2 —
Sarah Smith Reform UK 8,039 15.4 —
Mark Argent Lib Dems 4,821 9.3 —
Georgie Hunt Green 3,042 5.8 —
Chan Abraham Other 1,123 2.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,470
Median age
42
Employment rate
79.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029