Riding profile

Luton North

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Luton North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 24.7%
  • Reform UK 21.6%
  • Other 18.1%
  • Conservative 16.1%
  • Green 11.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Other Conservative
HereLuton North 24.7%21.6%18.1%16.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +2.9 25.4% −3.8 5.0% +13.1 19.3% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Luton North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 25% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sarah Owen

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Owen Elected Labour 14,677 37.9 —
Jilleane Brown Conservative 7,167 18.5 —
James Fletcher Reform UK 4,666 12.0 —
Toqueer Shah Other 4,393 11.3 —
Waheed Akbar Other 3,914 10.1 —
Ejel Khan Green 1,940 5.0 —
Sean Prendergast Lib Dems 1,890 4.9 —
Paul Trathen Other 98 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,600
Median age
36
Employment rate
65.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029