Riding profile
Luton North
The question
Luton North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Luton North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sarah Owen
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLuton North | 25.8% | 24.9% | 17.0% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +0.4 | 21.7% +3.3 | 4.8% +12.3 | 18.9% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Owen Elected | Labour | 14,677 | 37.9 | — |
| Jilleane Brown | Conservative | 7,167 | 18.5 | — |
| James Fletcher | Reform UK | 4,666 | 12.0 | — |
| Toqueer Shah | Other | 4,393 | 11.3 | — |
| Waheed Akbar | Other | 3,914 | 10.1 | — |
| Ejel Khan | Green | 1,940 | 5.0 | — |
| Sean Prendergast | Lib Dems | 1,890 | 4.9 | — |
| Paul Trathen | Other | 98 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029