Luton North
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton North | 31.1% | 21.0% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+4.6 | 22.3%−1.2 | 5.1%+12.3 | 20.0%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,600 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 65.6% |
Current member
Sarah Owen · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Owen Elected | Labour | 14,677 | 37.9 |
| Jilleane Brown | Conservative | 7,167 | 18.5 |
| James Fletcher | Reform UK | 4,666 | 12.0 |
| Toqueer Shah | Other | 4,393 | 11.3 |
| Waheed Akbar | Other | 3,914 | 10.1 |
| Ejel Khan | Green | 1,940 | 5.0 |
| Sean Prendergast | Lib Dems | 1,890 | 4.9 |
| Paul Trathen | Other | 98 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, competitive
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hitchin Labour, safe seat
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Hemel Hempstead Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated