Riding profile

Milton Keynes Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Milton Keynes Central: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 27.7%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • Reform UK 21.7%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Lib Dems 11.7%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMilton Keynes Central 27.7%24.4%21.7%12.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +5.9 19.3% +5.1 25.4% −3.6 10.8% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Milton Keynes Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emily Darlington

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emily Darlington Elected Labour 20,209 42.3 —
Johnny Luk Conservative 12,918 27.1 —
David Reilly Reform UK 6,245 13.1 —
James Cox Lib Dems 4,931 10.3 —
Frances Bonney Green 3,226 6.8 —
Alfred Saint-Clair Other 200 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
129,171
Median age
36
Employment rate
82.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029