Milton Keynes Central
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Central | 34.3% | 24.1% | 20.5% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+7.8 | 20.0%+4.0 | 22.3%−1.8 | 9.7%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,171 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Emily Darlington · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Darlington Elected | Labour | 20,209 | 42.3 |
| Johnny Luk | Conservative | 12,918 | 27.1 |
| David Reilly | Reform UK | 6,245 | 13.1 |
| James Cox | Lib Dems | 4,931 | 10.3 |
| Frances Bonney | Green | 3,226 | 6.8 |
| Alfred Saint-Clair | Other | 200 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Milton Keynes North Labour, competitive
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Aylesbury Conservative, toss-up
- Buckingham and Bletchley Labour, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, competitive
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated