Riding profile

Buckingham and Bletchley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Buckingham and Bletchley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Reform UK 26.7%
  • Labour 21.6%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 10.3%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereBuckingham and Bletchley 27.3%26.7%21.6%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +8.0 25.4% +1.3 21.8% −0.2 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Buckingham and Bletchley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Callum Anderson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Callum Anderson Elected Labour 17,602 37.0
Iain Stewart Conservative 15,181 31.9
Jordan Cattell Reform UK 7,468 15.7
Dominic Dyer Lib Dems 4,300 9.0
Amanda Onwuemene Green 2,590 5.4
Ray Brady Other 500 1.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,944
Median age
40
Employment rate
80.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029