Riding profile
South Northamptonshire
The question
South Northamptonshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Northamptonshire | 29.7% | 28.4% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +10.4 | 25.4% +3.1 | 21.8% −4.6 | 11.4% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Northamptonshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sarah Bool
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Bool Elected | Conservative | 19,191 | 35.7 | — |
| Rufia Ashraf | Labour | 15,504 | 28.9 | — |
| Paul Hogan | Reform UK | 8,962 | 16.7 | — |
| Stewart Tolley | Lib Dems | 4,989 | 9.3 | — |
| Emmie Williamson | Green | 3,040 | 5.7 | — |
| Ian McCord | Other | 1,556 | 2.9 | — |
| Mick Stott | Other | 246 | 0.5 | — |
| Stuart Robert | Other | 209 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029