South Northamptonshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Northamptonshire | 32.9% | 24.0% | 21.8% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+12.8 | 22.3%+1.8 | 26.5%−4.7 | 9.7%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,140 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 84.6% |
Current member
Sarah Bool · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Bool Elected | Conservative | 19,191 | 35.7 |
| Rufia Ashraf | Labour | 15,504 | 28.9 |
| Paul Hogan | Reform UK | 8,962 | 16.7 |
| Stewart Tolley | Lib Dems | 4,989 | 9.3 |
| Emmie Williamson | Green | 3,040 | 5.7 |
| Ian McCord | Other | 1,556 | 2.9 |
| Mick Stott | Other | 246 | 0.5 |
| Stuart Robert | Other | 209 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton South Labour, toss-up
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
- Buckingham and Bletchley Labour, toss-up
- Northampton North Labour, safe seat
- Milton Keynes North Labour, competitive
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated