Riding profile

Daventry

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Daventry: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.3%
  • Conservative 28.5%
  • Labour 16.8%
  • Lib Dems 12.5%
  • Green 9.6%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereDaventry 31.3%28.5%16.8%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.9 19.3% +9.2 21.8% −5.0 11.4% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Daventry, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stuart Andrew

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stuart Andrew Elected Conservative 17,872 33.7 —
Marianne Kimani Labour 14,860 28.0 —
Scott Cameron Reform UK 10,636 20.0 —
Jonathan Harris Lib Dems 6,755 12.7 —
Clare Slater Green 2,959 5.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,946
Median age
44
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029