Riding profile
Daventry
The question
Daventry: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Daventry, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stuart Andrew
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDaventry | 31.4% | 28.1% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.1 | 18.9% +9.2 | 21.7% −4.3 | 11.6% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Andrew Elected | Conservative | 17,872 | 33.7 | — |
| Marianne Kimani | Labour | 14,860 | 28.0 | — |
| Scott Cameron | Reform UK | 10,636 | 20.0 | — |
| Jonathan Harris | Lib Dems | 6,755 | 12.7 | — |
| Clare Slater | Green | 2,959 | 5.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029